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Win10 Marketshare Flat in Q316

The UK website, The Register, has thoughtfully consolidated Windows 10 marketshare numbers from my favorite sources. They report that Windows 10 growth appears as flat as a board for the just-ended calendar quarter. In looking for explanations for what makes Win10 marketshare flat in Q316, look no further than the end of the free upgrade on July 29.

Here’s a telling table of results from The Register’s 11/2 article entitled “Windows 10 market share stalls after free upgrade offer ends:”

Win10 Marketshare Flat in Q316

The values do vary, but the trend is undeniably flat across all sources.
[Source: TheRegister, 11/2/16]

Who Says Win10 Marketshare Flat in Q316?

The Register turned to three of my very favorite sources for OS marketshare data in compiling this table, so I’m happy to grant some credence to the results they present:

NetMarketShare.com aggregates web traffic from ~40,000 affiliated websites, and counts ~160M unique visits per month. While they can’t truly represent the entire globe (mostly the more-networked parts, actually) they offer a useful approximation.

Analytics.usa.gov is more narrow and captures client/user agent info only from browsers that visit the US Government’s thousands of websites. It’s always a bit more leading-edge, because the USA is farthest down the Windows 10 adoption trail.

StatCounter is a web traffic analysis tool that offers both free and for-a-fee tracking services. Based in Dublin, the company claims to represent three percent of all global websites (that’s 33M websites, based on current Internet Live Stats values).

Though values do differ between NetMarketShare and StatCounter, they are in the same ballpark. More important they show only negligible growth month-over-month for the previous quarter. (Even a slight decline, according to NetMarketShare).

Apparently, Windows 10 has hit the wall. In the absence of the free promotion, it does indeed appear stalled. Whether this is a temporary lull while the market catches its breath or a major future vexation for MS, only time will tell.

[Note: here’s a shout out to VIP Member lehnerus2000 at TenForums.com, whose 11/5 post brought The Register’s story to my attention. Thanks!]

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I am surprised the free upgrade caused it to grow as much as it did. Microsoft (Marketing) simply does not understand that in the process of chasing after increasing shares you simply cannot throw your old users under the bus. They are your champions and evangelists, if you respect them. You cannot make major changes that invalidate existing knowledge and use without causing a large amount of unhappiness. I have used MS software since about 1982 with great appreciation until they began spurning experienced users with software like Windows Vista that required large learning curves.
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