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Are Win10 Installs Losing Momentum?

Between a couple of interesting stories reported at NeoWin.net and WinBeta.org recently, the rapid rise of Windows 10 installs appears to be slowing down from its initial explosive rate. Although the current level of 120 million installs reflects a daily rate of 1.33 M installs per day, that number has gone up from 110 million reported on October 6 to 120 million on October 29. For the past 24 days, that puts the daily rate at only 0.42 million per day, or 31.5% of the overall average. While many sources write gushingly about how well Win10 is doing, and how MS may indeed be able to reach its billion-install milestone in 2 or 3 years, I am not quite so encouraged by this recent and apparently massive slowdown in the daily install rate. Here’s a graph I put together to show what’s going on using a non-representative time scale:

winstalls-graph

There’s been a considerable flattening of the uptake curve since the beginning of October for Win10 installs.

The data points shown are as follows:
1. 14 million, 24 hours after initial release on July 29, 2015
2. 53 million, three weeks into the cycle on August 19, 2015
3. 110 million on October 6
4. 120 million on October 29

I can’t help but see a trend where the curve is losing upward momentum (sharper slope) in favor of slowing installations (flatter slope). Of course, a small number of data points makes it difficult to predict a trend accurately, but this looks like a phenomenon that’s reached its peak in terms of momentum and is slowing sharply. On the other hand, the upcoming release of Threshold 2 in November, and the switchover of Xbox consoles to a Windows 10 code base, may inject some further increases in the overall curve — we’ll just have to wait and see what happens. But based on the numbers at hand, it looks like MS may have been a tad over-optimistic in projecting the line out to 1 billion overall installs, even a full 36 months out from the initial release date for Build 10240 on July 29, 2015. Even at 1.33 M installs per day, it will take over 20 months to get to 1 billion total installs for the remaining 880 million left to go; at 0.42 M per day, that timeline stretches out to over 5 years!

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