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Factoring Out Xbox in Active User Count

As part of its latest earnings report, MS reported on October 20 that for Q1 F72017 (Jul-Sep, 2016) there were 47 million active Xbox Live users. This number interests me, because it suggests how many of those that MS reports as active Windows 10 users fall under the Xbox umbrella. It’s been just over a year since the Xbox started running Windows 10 instead of its own proprietary OS. Ever since, MS has been included those devices in its count of overall Windows 10 active users. Of course, this makes factoring out Xbox interesting. The company is still reporting the 400 million number, as follows:

factoring out xbox

On this ‘By the Numbers‘ page, MS is still reporting the global device count at 400M.

After Factoring Out Xbox, What’s Left?

Of course, now we know we should discount the total figure by somewhere around 50 million or so when factoring non-PC devices out. Windows phones still account for something, but by no means as much as the Xbox count. But that puts the numbers of PCs running Windows 10 somewhere in the 350M neighborhood. Assume for a moment that NetMarketShare’s latest numbers accurately reflect global PC counts. Then, with Windows 10 at 22.53% at present, that puts Windows 7 users at 750 million devices or so. It also puts PCs running Windows 8, 8.1 and XP at about another 290 million. Other versions of Windows (Vista, and NT) account for another 20 million give or take.

The grand total for Windows PCs of all stripes would therefore fall around 1.41 billion all told. With the total number of PCs globally estimated to be over 2 billion by this year, MS comes up considerably lower than the active count from NetMarketShare at 70% in round numbers. NetMarketShare’s analytics put that value at 90.85%.

I can’t help but think that NetMarketShare is missing some significant portion of global traffic and thus also underestimating the total number of PC users world wide. If they’re undercounting PCs, might they not be overcounting Microsoft’s share as well? It’s hard to say conclusively, but easy to wonder about out loud…

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