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Where Is Windows 10 Desktopshare?

Back on January 4, Microsoft announced that the installed base of its Windows 10 desktop OS had surpassed 200 million. By my reckoning, that means the current count for the installed base could be as high as 280 million right now. How did I come up with that number? I divided 200 million by 159 (the number of days from July 29, 2015 — the day Windows 10 went public — to January 4, 2016 — the day of the announcement) then multiplied that number by 222 (the number of days from July 29, 2015 through today, March 7, 2016). Can this possibly be correct? As the old saying goes: “Anything is possible.” But until Microsoft chooses to share more numbers with us, it remains a speculation on my part, pure and simple. Thus, the same also goes for Windows 10 desktopshare.

Today’s NetMarketShare numbers for Desktop OS by version show Windows 10 now surpasses XP and all Win8 versions.

Windows 10 Desktopshare in Context

If we take a look at the latest figures from for Desktop OS by version, we also see the following surround for Windows 10 desktopshare:

  • Windows 10’s current share stands at 12.82% in these rankings (up 0.97% from 2/8/2016)
  • Windows 10 current share beats XP by 1.58% and all Windows 8 versions (8 and 8.1) by 0.56%.
  • Windows 7’s market share remains ascendant at 52.34%, but has dipped a hair from 52.47% since February 8, the last time I blogged about these numbers (I do this about once a month, in case you haven’t noticed)

As the Windows 10 desktopshare continues to grow, all the other Windows versions represented are shrinking, albeit slowly:

  • Windows 8’s share has dipped from 2.68 to 2.43% (-0.25%)
  • Windows 8.1’s share declines from 10.4 to 9.83% (-0.57%)
  • Windows XP’s share drops from 11.42 to 11.24% (-0.18%)
  • Windows 7’s share slips from 52.47 to 52.34% (-0.13%)

It’s interesting that the still-supported Windows 8 versions are declining faster than XP, now beyond end-of-life since April 8, 2014, coming up on two years ago. Given statistical margins of error and very small declines for both XP and 7, it’s even possible to assert that the vast majority (if not the entirety) of losses in market share on the desktop could be fobbed off on the Windows 8 versions by themselves. That speaks tellingly of how little love Windows 8 ever earned from its users, and how much staying power XP and 7 continue to hold.

As we go forward, however, XP is bound to start falling faster off the metrics. Windows 7 can’t help but start declining faster as well, especially once its majority marketshare dips below the halfway mark. That leaves Windows 10 desktopshare noplace to go but up!