The proportion of Windows users running Windows 10 varies, according to the source for such data. But as a rising tide floats all boats, so recently do several metrics show the Windows 10 share of desktops going up, up, up. The current numbers from NetMarketShare.com put Windows 10 solidly in the number 2 slot at 17.43% behind Windows 7 at 48.57%. XP remains in third place at 10.09%, though adding both Windows 8 versions (8 and 8.1) edges ahead at 11.38% (at 8.77% for 8.1 and 2.62% for 8). That puts the range for Win10 desktopshare 17-23% in May 2016.
The US Government is another major source for this kind of information, through its analytics.usa.gov website. It reports only on visitors to its own websites for a more USA-centric view of the online world. Its numbers put Windows 10 at 23.5% of visitors running Windows versions, or at 19.6% of visitors not running either iOS or Android (a different way to get to a desktop focus). This means that Windows 10 is running on 12.1% of all devices accessing those websites, FWIW. The government numbers come in at the top of the Win10 desktopshare 17-23% range.
I’m surprised to see XP still so strongly represented in the NetMarketShare numbers at 10.09% when analytics.usa.gov reports only 1.4% of its visitors running the same OS. Possibly, this reflects a larger base of hangers-on outside the USA that shows up in NetMarketShare’s more global population. That’s ironic, because various agencies and arms of the US Government have some of the largest continuing support contracts for XP still running to this day, to the tune of millions of dollars per year.
The last figures for active devices running Windows 10 came from Microsoft on May 5 at 300 million. Given current run rates between 23 and 30 million new devices per month, that means the current total is probably in the neighborhood of 320-300 million as of the beginning of June. Take a look at how this graphs out in terms of getting to the 1 billion mark, extrapolating with growth rates in those two increments:
Looks like 2018 is a more likely year for Microsoft to hit the “one billion served” mark for Win10!
The way I read these chart lines, I see the 1 billion mark occurring sometime between April and December in 2018 if those monthly growth rates continue unabated. But who knows if the numbers will keep going so strong once the free upgrade deadline comes and goes at the end of July? If I were forced to bet on the trend, I’d be inclined to bet against that proposition. Microsoft’s goal is probably not a dream deferred at this point, but it could easily become a dream delayed.