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Win10 Hits 400M Users as Adoptions Slow

On Monday, September 26, during the first day of its Ignite conference, Microsoft officials disclosed that Windows 10 now runs on 400 million active devices. Thanks to Mary Jo Foley sharing this news, I can speculate on the current run rate versus the historical average. Here goes: 300 million adoptions on May 5 gives a 100 million increase over 20 weeks. That’s an increase of 5 million per week. Doesn’t sound half-bad, eh? But when Win10 hits 400M users how does that indicate a slackening adoption pace?

What Win10 Hits 400M Users Really Means

If we look at the run rate up through July 29, the official release date for the Anniversary Update, we get an interim number of 350 million active devices at that time. That means that the period from May 5 through July 29, and the period from July 30 through September 26 each saw approximately 50M Windows 10 adoptions. That’s 12 weeks for the first period and roughly 9 for the second period. This indicates recent history has improved somewhat, in fact. It’s a 33% improvement because of the shorter time period for the second 50 million increment.

But the slowdown effect becomes clearly visible if we stretch our time horizon back to July 29, 2015, which adds 52 weeks to the overall time window. Adding the 9 weeks from July 29, 2016 to September 26, 2016, that puts the whole span up to 61 weeks. Divide 400 million by 61 and you get 6.55 million per week. Recent adoptions reckon at 4.16 million for May 5 through July 29, and 5.55 million for July 30 through September 26. That’s an average of 5 million for that entire period. Thus, it’s readily apparent that the trend is downward, though not at a horrific pace.

What does a 5M monthly run rate mean for Microsoft’s 1B active users objective? Starting from October it means 10 more years (120 months) before that milestone is reached. That’s 2026! Methinks MS will have to find ways to speed things up a bit. As long as it doesn’t involve another nefarious push like their “Get Windows 10 ” (GWX) initiative, I wish them luck.