OK, the balance of Windows usage is shifting away from Windows 7 toward Windows 10. A WindowsReport story appeared this morning to that effect. From staff writer George Finley, it’s entitled “Windows 10 could overtake Windows 7 by the end of 2017.” But it cites NetMarketShare, a site whose accuracy has been questioned by Windows pundits. (See Ed Bott’s discussion in this Jan 2017 story at ZDnet for details). That’s why I decided to see if that ratio held at Analytics.usa.gov. This site reports stats for visitors to all US government websites. And indeed, it too shows that Win10 usage approaches Win7 levels.
Why Say That Win10 Usage Approaches Win7 Levels?
One current bar chart from the site says it all, especially when leavened with a little quick math:
These numbers represent visits over the past 90 days, as of 10/6/17.
[Source: Analytics.USA.gov for “All Participating Websites”]
If you calculate the ratio between the “Windows 7” and “Windows 10” entries, it works out to 0.8333. Mathematically, that equals the fraction 5/6. Thus, I feel reasonably confident that there are 5 Windows 10 users for every 6 Windows 7 users who access US government websites. And indeed, that’s a big change in momentum. Also, it lends credibility to the idea that the balance is shifting substantially. I’d say it is possible, or perhaps likely, that more PCs will be running Windows 10 than Windows 7 (at least, among Internet users) by year’s end. It’s actually more convincing than the NetMarketShare numbers, which show a ratio of more like 6 Win10 users for every 10 Win7 users.
For what it’s worth, StatCounter’s Windows Version share numbers also tell a similar story. As of September 30, Win10 gets a 39.3% share, while Win7 shows 43.99%. That’s a ratio of roughly 89.4%, which translates more or less into a ratio of 7 Windows 10 for every 8 Windows 7 users over the sites they monitor. Combined with the US Government ratio already reported, this supports the notion that these population sizes are converging. It also lends credibility to the observation that Win10 usage approaches Win7 levels, and that the balance may shift sometime soon.